October 21, 2025: Two months ago, Ukraine launched a surprise drone attack on five Russian air bases located across Russia. The farthest target was over 4,000 kilometers from Ukraine. Three targeted air bases were located near the Arctic Circle; another was near the Pacific coast, and the last two were in Siberia and near the Mongolian border.

Russia believed these bases were too far from Ukraine to be attacked. The bases housed the last 120 long-range bombers Russia possessed. These aircraft are no longer produced, and any that are lost cannot be replaced.

It took the Ukrainians nearly two years to plan what they called Operation Spider Web. Ukraine infiltrated trucks carrying crates containing drones into Russia. Most of the drivers were Russians who were paid well to drive these trucks to remote locations, where they had orders to leave the trucks and take local buses or trains home. After that, drone operators based in Ukraine or Ukraine-friendly areas of Russia took control of the drones and launched them. The artificial intelligence software in each drone then used visual sensors to spot, identify, and home in on their targets. This operation destroyed 41 aircraft, which was more than a third of Russia's heavy bomber fleet. After that, attacks by the remaining bombers on Ukraine were rare, especially when it was discovered that the Ukrainians were prepared to counter and disrupt these attacks, frequently destroying the bombers. After that, Russia relied mostly on ballistic missiles. Ukraine had also become more adept at intercepting these. The Ukrainians developed advanced techniques to counter these threats.

Russian heavy bombers also used long-range Kh-103 cruise missiles against Ukrainian targets. These are similar to the American Tomahawk cruise missile but cost much more, at over $12 million each.

So far this year, Russia has used about 500 cruise and ballistic missiles against Ukrainian targets. Most of these were intercepted or failed before reaching their targets. This did not discourage the Russians, who were at last inflicting some damage on Ukrainian targets. Most of those targets are now economic targets that are less likely to have missile defenses.

So far in the war, few targets have been hit, but the NATO nations providing Ukraine with these systems have gained a lot of experience in using these weapons against modern missiles. This means that, if the United States is ever at war with China, American missile defenses will be much more capable.