May 7, 2025: The war in Ukraine depends on how much industrial production each side can muster. As of early 2025 the Russians were winning because they have much more industry and industrial workers, though Ukraine punches a bit above its weight class.

The Russian defense industry managed to quickly increase defense production. Ukraine followed suit, although with lesser intensity because of fewer resources. NATO, especially European members, had to confront numerous problems while trying to expand defense related production. These countries had plenty of cash, but had not undertaken such a mobilization since the 1930s, when World War II was a growing threat.

Russia was always better prepared for war. This was demonstrated before 2022 when Russia created a military-industrial mobilization plan that was implemented soon after Russian forces invaded Ukraine. Since the invasion began in February 2022 Russia has suffered enormous losses in terms of combat personnel, military equipment and the reputation for quality, reliability and effectiveness of Russian weapons and military personnel.

Russia found that a more critical problem than equipment was manpower. Russian industry could produce more tanks and artillery, but getting enough soldiers was different. Heavy losses in Ukraine, mostly due to President Vladimir Putin’s constant insistence on suicidal attacks and the impact of that information on the Russian people, especially military-age men, derailed the expansion plans. A year ago, Russia increased the legal maximum number of its active-duty military personnel from 1,013,628 to 1,150,628. It was believed unlikely that this number would ever be reached. At the end of 2021, months before the invasion of Ukraine, Russian ground forces had about 400,000 men while the navy and air force each had about 150,000. About a third of air force personnel were paratroopers or air-mobile infantry. The navy had about 12,000 marines, who guarded naval bases in peacetime. That means the heavy Russian losses since the invasion began, and failure to mobilize many replacements, reduced the Russian 2021 army to about 250,000 personnel, which was less than a third of the Ukrainian Army. The airborne forces and marines also suffered heavy losses but more of them were still in service.

At the start of its invasion of Ukraine, the Russian government committed an estimated 190,000 troops to an attack on northern, eastern, and southern Ukraine. Because of stout Ukrainian resistance enabled by recently delivered weapons and intelligence from NATO countries, Russia was been unable to make much progress. Russian military losses were catastrophic. After eighteen months of war, the Russian military lost thousands of tanks, other armored vehicles and artillery systems. Personnel losses were nearly 300,000 by mid-2023.

After the invasion, Ukraine rapidly mobilized for war with substantial help from the Americans. The United States had enormous military resources and eventually sent Ukraine over 100 billion dollars’ worth of aid. That stopped in early 2025 as a new American government sought to force the European NATO members to do more for their neighbor. After all, Ukraine was a European country that bordered NATO members Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. Without the United States Europe had to quickly create defense industries or expand the ones they had. The Europeans had the cash and the motivation but time was not on their side. It would take several years to match the quantity of equipment the Americans had sent to Ukraine. The Europeans were also worried about the Russian threat to come after them once Ukraine was conquered. Europe hasn’t faced such a crisis since 1939 and 1940. Back then the Europeans were not prepared enough and were overwhelmed by the Germans. It wasn’t until 1944 when the Americans, British, Canadians and several smaller contingents came ashore at Normandy that the continent was liberated.

Once more the enemy is better prepared as Russia implanted an industrial production plan. This was something the Russians retained after 70 years as part of the Soviet Union. Both Russia and Ukraine maintain the same kind of control over their military production. This is a very centralized system that coordinates the investments in and operations of their defense industries. Europe lacks these customs and has to create defense industries from nothing, copying Russian and American techniques. The Europeans had the advantage of Ukrainian advisors, whose survival depends on how well Europe can manage military reindustrialization.

Another key factor is what this costs. Russia found that their more efficient defense industries also cost them a lot more than expected. Russia devotes most of its national budget to defense production, which left most Russians worse off than before the invasion of Ukraine.

Europe has far greater financial resources and many more financial experts to efficiently turn this cash into military might, and has not only expanded defense spending but also rerouted money from other budgets to expand military-industrial recapitalization, plus providing loans to defense companies to enable rapid growth. This poses challenges in the medium term. It is not reasonable to expect Europe, which is not at war, to mobilize investment to a comparable level. However, the fragmentation of the European defense market has meant that money is spent very inefficiently. Greater European coordination of spending is needed to get essential military equipment to Ukrainian and European soldiers before the Russians overwhelm everyone. That is unlikely. France and Britain have nuclear weapons and would effectively threaten a Russian invasion with nuclear retaliation. This is nothing new as it was done during the 44 year long Cold War between NATO and Russia. Now, a quarter century after the Cold War ended Russia again threatens Europe.

Russia invaded Ukraine because the Ukrainians wanted to be part of NATO Europe. That is what the war is all about and Europe cannot ignore Ukraine because that country is part of Europe and should not be part of a new Russian empire. Ukraine has been doing its part but has taken a tremendous beating from Russia. Recently Ukraine’s largest munitions plant was destroyed by Russian missiles. More and more Europeans can envision their own industries and cities bombarded by Russian missiles. The long held illusion that this could not happen to Europe has slowly faded away.