July 21, 2025: Israeli military planners took advantage of how Iranian leaders misunderstood what was going on. The Iranians believed that Israel would take no action before the next round of nuclear weapons negotiations. Iran believed that it was all Israeli propaganda to obtain concessions from Iran. This was a fatal mistake, because the Iranians failed to implement their safety protocols. These included leadership only meeting in secure locations. Instead the leaders met at a military base and Israeli operatives inside Iran noted this and reported it.

Israel has hundreds of operatives inside Iran. Most are Iranians dissatisfied with the religious dictatorship misruling the country. Most Iranian leaders don’t believe the Israelis could recruit and use these operatives. As in so many other areas, the Iranian misunderstood what was really going on. In 2018 it was these operatives that allowed Israel to get half a ton of Iranian nuclear weapons program documents out of the country. Iranian arrogance about Israeli capabilities has often turned into a fatal flaw.

Israel exploiting Iranian errors has worked multiple times because Iranian leaders refuse to believe the Israelis would operate like that, that their own people hate them so much that they willingly cooperate with Israeli intelligence, and in particular that Israel has penetrated Iran’s regime security forces. Yet, during the June 13 Israeli attack the Iranians once more made some very expensive miscalculations. Israel managed to kill several senior military leaders, destroyed most Iranian air defense systems, ballistic missile operations, and crippled, with an assist from the Americans, the underground nuclear material processing operation.

The June 13 attacks made Iran’s leaders very angry and they retaliated, but all they could launch were about a hundred missiles and drones which survived the Israeli attack. Some got through and caused about two dozen Israeli casualties and damaged some buildings. Iran made some subsequent attacks that cause more damage.

Meanwhile Iranian problems are multiplying and escalating. These include a new program to cripple Iranian oil exports by imposing severe financial penalties on nations that buy Iranian oil. This will not halt oil sales but will cripple them to a certain extent and reduce the amount of cash Iran has to cause mischief in the region.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei survived because the American B2 bombers that damaged Iranian underground nuclear facilities were not used to kill him. The Israelis and Americans agreed that it was best to leave Khamenei alone. He was a known unpleasant quantity. His successor would likely be worse.

In the end this brief Iran-Israeli war left over 5,000 Iranians dead or wounded. Israel lost 29 dead and nearly 3,500 injured. Iranian errors and Israeli ingenuity and quick action won again. The war did not end, but the Iranians got another reminder that the Israelis are not to be underestimated. Next time should be different, because the Iranians never stop trying.