February 3, 2026: Russia’s war in Ukraine has now gone on longer than the World War II war with Germany. The current war has cost Russia 1.4 million men killed, disabled or missing. Only a few hundred civilians have become casualties. During World War II, at least 26 million soldiers and civilians died. That was 13.7 percent of the 1941 population.

The Ukraine war has been going on since 2014, when Russia occupied the Crimean Peninsula and portions of two provinces in eastern Ukraine. Until 2021, the war was low key, with about 50,000 Russian and Ukrainian soldiers and civilians killed or wounded. That’s about 7,000 casualties a year. After Russia invaded Ukraine itself in 2022 the casualties and equipment losses leaped. So far Russia has lost 1.2 million men dead, disabled or missing while Ukraine has lost about half a million dead, wounded, missing and captured. The Russian missile and drone attacks on cities and towns have killed or wounded over 50,000 civilians. Similar Ukrainian attacks on Russia have killed or wounded about 1,800 Russian civilians.

Russia has suffered far heavier weapon and equipment losses since 2022. These include 47,000 armored vehicles, 24 percent of them tanks. Other losses included 97,000 drones, 37,000 artillery, rocket launchers and mortars, 1,300 air defense systems, 72,000 vehicles, 435 aircraft, 350 helicopters, 28 ships and boats and three submarines. Similar Ukrainian losses have been about 45 percent of the Russian losses.

Russia has suffered other losses. Since 2022 Russia has been subject to an increasing number of economic sanctions. These have made it more difficult to obtain components to manufacture weapons and munitions. North Korea and Iran supplied munitions, including drones and missiles. China has helped by supplying many of the components Russia formerly obtained from Western suppliers.

China was unwilling to help some more fundamental Russian economic problems. Four years of war, sanctions and a transformation from a peacetime to a wartime economy that has gradually collapsed under the weight of the sanctions, labor shortages and lower oil prices. The labor shortages were caused by over two million Russian men becoming casualties in Ukraine or leaving the country to avoid the war. The sanctions meant it was difficult or sometimes impossible to obtain replacement carts for factories. China did not make some of the items needed or Russia could not afford to buy what China did have available. China, unlike most countries, does not give anything away. They will make loans to credit worthy nations. Wartime Russia is not considered eligible for Chinese loans.

Another problem that has grown into a crisis is civilian unrest because of the war. Until late 2025 most Russians supported the war. Over the last six months that support has morphed into growing protests and passive resistance to the war effort. If this problem is not tended to, by ending the war, it will grow into a major political and economic problem. This is already visible with the collapse of recruiting efforts. Few Russian men are willing to sign up for military service. Worse, the government has run out of cash to pay large signing bonuses. Even if those large bonuses were still available, few Russian men would join the military.

Currently the 700,000 Russian soldiers in Ukraine have had to reduce their offensive activities and concentrate on minimizing losses to maintain enough troops to man the 1,200 kilometer-long front line. Meanwhile the Ukrainians, who continue to be supplied with military and economic aid by NATO countries, are on the offensive. Ukraine is also producing nearly 80 percent of the weapons and munitions it needs and receiving billions of dollars’ worth of foreign investments in Ukrainian industries. Ukraine has the most successful experience in modern warfare and NATO nations are eager to learn what the Ukrainians know.

With Russian forces now on the defensive, Vladimir Putin has to decide how long he can avoid making peace on Ukrainian terms before he has critical problems with the Russian population.